It’s looking more and more like 2022 is a much better time to buy a house — with one big catch

2225 NW Lakeside Pl, Bend, OR 97703
Presented by Tammy Caruso | Offered at $3,500,000 | MLS# 220134545

From businessinsider.com

Economists told Insider in July that 2022 will be an easier time for prospective homebuyers. New signs suggest that forecast is holding up.

The past 12 months have been among the hardest in history for American house hunters. A shortage of available units fueled bidding wars and drove prices higher at a record pace. Builders were slow to shore up supply. While the broader economy healed, housing became less and less attainable.

New data signals the chaos of the 2021 housing market is giving way to a more normal buying environment. The chasm between buyers’ demand and the market’s supply is closing, albeit slowly. And while economists expect prices to keep soaring next year, signs point to 2021 serving as the peak for the housing-market frenzy.

A few indicators hint that demand is already easing.

The Common Haus Price Index — which tracks asking prices for the popular three-bed, two-bath US home — slowed to a year-over-year rate of 5.4% from 5.9% last week, according to the housing economist Ralph McLaughlin. That marks the smallest one-year jump since January 2020, again echoing precrisis trends.

Prices have fallen more dramatically on a seasonal basis. The average price of the most common US home slid to $337,000 last week from $340,000. The latest average is now $26,000 below the 2021 peak of $363,000, the largest seasonal gap in data going back to 2012, McLaughlin tweeted Tuesday.

At the other end of the market, supply is bouncing back at the fastest pace since May. US housing starts leaped to an annualized rate of 1.68 million in November, according to Census Bureau data published last week. That beat the median forecast of a 1.57-million-unit pace.

Adding multifamily units into the mix makes for an even rosier outlook. There were nearly 1.5 million single-family and multifamily units under construction in November, according to government data. That combined figure is the highest it’s been since 1973.

The pickup isn’t likely to be a one-month boom, either. Building permits rose more than expected in November to the fastest pace since August. Though permits serve as just the first step in getting new homes to market, they are a leading indicator for residential construction. The increases in both starts and permits suggest supply will swing higher later in 2022 and beyond.

Even bidding wars are slowing down. Redfin has been keeping a competition index from its own real-estate professionals’ data, and 59.5% of home offers faced competition in November. That might sound like a lot, but it’s the lowest in 11 months, down from April’s high of 74.6%.

To be sure, it will take some time before the nationwide home inventory looks anything like it used to. The supply of active listings plunged 26% in the 12 months that ended in November, according to Realtor.com. The inventory of available homes is at the latest of several record lows, a whopping 55% below levels seen in 2019.

And the indicators of an inventory rebound and price cut are set to be unequal depending on the region of the country. The Sun Belt has boomed throughout the pandemic and shows no signs of getting cheaper anytime soon. Whatever houses hit the market there are sure to be snapped up quickly.

Redfin’s competition index bears this out. While the national rate has fallen into the 50% range, some markets face a much higher percentage of bidding wars, led by Richmond, Virginia (80%); Salt Lake City (73.8%); San Diego (72%); Honolulu (71.1%); and Dallas (70.6%).

In general, homes are still selling at a blinding pace. The average time homes spend on the market fell to 47 days in November, down from 57 days the year prior. Although the measure is swinging higher as the market settles into the slower holiday season, homes are still sold faster than in any November in recent history, Realtor.com said. Inventory might be bouncing back, but it’s not rebounded enough to normalize the market just yet.

Buyers will have to wait a little longer for home shopping to cool down, but 2022 should be a better time to buy, at last.

Full article at businessinsider.com


November Housing Starts Post Double-Digit Gains

12610 SE Deremer Ln, Happy Valley, OR 97086
Presented by Thomas Cale & Jason Mendell | Offered at $2,000,000 | MLS# 21008338

From housingwire.com

After dipping by 0.7% in October, housing starts were back up in November. They rose 11.8% month-over-month to a seasonally adjusted rate of 1.68 million units, according to a report released Thursday by the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development and the U.S. Census Bureau.

Construction of single-family homes increased 11.3% to 1.17 million units, while the construction of multifamily units increased 12.9% to 506,000 units.

“Breaking an eight-year trend, in recent months there have been more single-family homes under construction than multifamily units,” National Association of Home Builders chief economist Robert Dietz said in a statement. “Moreover, despite some cooling earlier this year, the continued strength of single-family construction in 2021 means there are now 28% more single-family homes under construction than a year ago. These gains mean single-family completions will increase in 2022, bringing more inventory to market despite a 19% year-over-year rise in construction material costs and longer construction times.”

HUD and the Census Bureau are attributing this increase in production to strong demand for new construction. As housing inventory across the country continues to remain at historic lows, it comes as no surprise that many prospective homebuyers are turning to new construction.

November saw a decent increase in residential construction jobs with 4,100 residential building jobs and 6,200 residential specialty trade contractor jobs created. In addition, this rise in housing starts also reflects an increase in homebuilder confidence.

“Mirroring gains in the HMI reading of builder sentiment, single-family housing starts accelerated near the end of 2021 and are up 15.2% year-to-date as demand for new construction remains strong due to a lean inventory of resale housing,” Chuck Fowke the chairman of the NAHB said in a statement.

Regionally, on a year-to-date basis, combined single-family and multifamily starts are 24.4% higher in the Northeast, 9.6% higher in the Midwest, 15.4% higher in the South and 19.4% higher in the West, compared to the same time period a year prior.

Looking into the new year, overall housing permits increased 3.6%, with single-family permits rising 2.7% and multifamily permits rising 5.2%, suggesting that new inventory, in the form of new construction, will eventually hit the market, helping alleviate some of the crunch felt by such low inventory levels.

“The bottom line is we need more homes and it will take time to reduce the housing stock ‘debt’ in the face of growing demand,” First American deputy chief economist Odeta Kushi said in a statement. “But today’s housing starts report, in combination with a positive builder’s sentiment report, sends an optimistic message about the housing market as we enter 2022.”

Full article at housingwire.com


Homeowners Gained Over $3.2 Trillion In Equity In the 3rd Quarter Of 2021

1587 S Spruce St, Cannon Beach, OR 97110
Presented by Robin Risley | Offered at $1,250,000 | MLS# 21687476

From Forbes

CoreLogic, a leading global property information, analytics and data-enabled solutions provider, today released the Homeowner Equity Report for the third quarter of 2021. The report shows homeowners with mortgages—which account for roughly 63% of all properties—have seen their equity increase by 31.1% year over year, representing a collective equity gain of over $3.2 trillion, and an average gain of $56,700 per borrower, since the third quarter of 2020.

This summer, home price growth reached the highest level in more than 45 years, pushing equity gains to another record high and allowing 70,000 properties to regain equity in the third quarter of 2021. These equity gains provided a crucial barrier against foreclosure for the 1.2 million borrowers who reached the end of forbearance in September.

“Not only have equity gains helped homeowners more seamlessly transition out of forbearance and avoid a distressed sale, but they’ve also enabled many to continue building their wealth,” said Frank Martell, president and CEO of CoreLogic. “This financial reserve will be especially helpful for homeowners looking to fund renovation projects.”

Frank Nothaft, chief economist for CoreLogic, noted that home price growth is the principal driver of home equity creation. “The CoreLogic Home Price Index reported home prices were up 17.7% for the past 12 months ending September, spurring the record gains in home equity wealth,” he said.

Full article on Forbes


Higher Mortgage Loan Limits Set for 2022

33423 SW Ladd Hill Rd, Wilsonville, OR 97070
Presented by Jennifer Nash | Offered at $2,850,000 | MLS# 21014650

From REALTOR® Magazine

The Federal Housing Finance Agency announced Tuesday that conforming loan limits for mortgages backed by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac will jump in most of the country to $647,200, an increase of $98,950 from 2021’s limit of $548,250. The higher levels are in response to rising home prices over the past year.

The FHFA’s House Price Index shows that home prices rose 18.05%, on average, between the third quarters of 2020 and 2021. The 2022 conforming loan limits are increasing by the same percentage, the FHFA reports.

However, in areas where the local median home value exceeds the baseline conforming loan limit, the limits will be much higher, the FHFA says. In higher-priced locations such as San Francisco and New York, the conforming loan limits for 2022 will increase to $970,800. In 2021, that baseline was $822,375.

Find out the conforming loan limit for 2022 in your area at FHFA.gov. You can also view the interactive map on their website.

Full article on REALTOR® Magazine