Economists Forecast Recovery to Begin in the Second Half of 2020

800 Terrace Dr, Lake Oswego, OR 97034
Listed by Yvonne Blewett | Offered at $1,559,000 | MLS# 20117172

From keepingcurrentmatters.com

Concerns about the country’s financial standpoint continue to come up daily now that everyone is thinking about the U.S. economy. The top question emerging is -when will the economy begin to recover? No one knows when the economic rebound is likely to happen, but expert economists are becoming aligned on when this will transpire.

Based on Economic Forecasting Survey from the Wall Street Journal, 85.3% believe a recovery will begin in the second half of 2020.

Chris Hyzy who is the Chief Investment Officer for Merrill stated they are fully expecting that the economy could begin to pick up in late June and July, then a strong recovery in Q4 of this year will follow.

Furthermore, five of the major financial institutions are also forecasting positive GDP in the second half of the year. Today, four of the five expect a recovery to begin in Q3 of 2020, and all five agree a recovery should start by Q4.

Leading economists, analysts, and financial institutions are all in agreement that the economic recovery should begin in the second half of 2020.

Full details on keepingcurrentmatters.com


Housing Market Positioned to Bring Back the Economy

Listed by: Jason Mendell
12160 SE Greiner Ln Happy Valley, OR 97086
Listed by Jason Mendell | Offered at $1,700,000 | MLS #19307064

From keepingcurrentmatters.com

Everyone is so focused on the American economy at the moment. As it goes, so does the world economy. With states beginning to reopen, the question becomes: which sectors of the economy will drive its recovery? There seems to be a growing agreement that the housing market is positioned to be that driving force toward the necessary improvement.

Some may question that statement as they look back on the last recession in 2008 when housing was the anchor to the economy – holding it back from sailing forward. But even then, the overall economy did not begin to recover until the real estate market started to regain its strength. This time, the housing market was in great shape when the virus hit.

According to Mark Fleming, Chief Economist of First American, many still live with the effect of the Great Recession. People may be expecting the housing market to follow the same path in response to the coronavirus outbreak. But, distinct differences are showing that the housing market may follow a much different path. The housing market may have led the recession in 2008-2009, it may also manage to bring us out of it this time.

Every piece of sold property has an impressive financial impact on local economies. As the real estate market continues to recover, it will act as a strong tailwind to the overall national economy.

Full article on keepingcurrentmatters.com


As Stay-At-Home Orders Ease, Homebuyers Are Getting Back In The Game

1832 SE Blue Skies Lane Prineville, OR 97754
Listed by The Vandenborn Group | Offered at $669,900 | MLS #220100645

From forbes.com

Homebuyers seem to be taking full advantage now that social distancing orders are being less tight across the country. According to the Mortgage Bankers Association, applications from homebuyers increased last week by 11%, marking the third consecutive week of increases.

The homebuying activity is still down 10% over the year, but that year-over-year gap is thinning out every week. The number of home buying loan applications in April was down 35% annually.

According to Joel Kan, MBA’s Associate Vice President of Economic and Industry forecasting, we can expect the wave of improvement to keep on spreading.

Refinance applications have been declining in recent weeks despite record-low mortgage rates. The average rate on a 30-year, the fixed-rate loan came in at 3.43%, but refinancing activity dropped 3% this week and 2% the week prior. This is probably due to a combination of factors, including stricter lending standards, increasing unemployment, and more time-strapped lenders.

If rates continue to drop, demand for refinances may see an even bigger spike. According to a report from Bloomberg, mortgage rates could drop below 3% in the coming weeks—well below the lowest point on record. This could add serious incentives for homeowners to refinance.

According to the recent Mortgage Monitor report from real estate analytics firm Black Knight, if rates drop to just 3%, more than 19 million homeowners could shave at least 0.75% off their mortgage rate.

This could mean a difference of around $80 per month and nearly $1,000 per year on a $250,000 home.

Full article on forbes.com


U.S. Homeownership Rate Rises to Highest Point in 8 Years

From keepingcurrentmatters.com

Almost everyone has been complying with the stay-at-home orders from our state and local governments for nearly two months now. This unexpected situation has put our daily lives on pause making us find comfort in spending time at home and feel secured from having a much-needed safe place to live.

According to the Housing Vacancy Survey (HVS), Americans place great value in homeownership and it is continuing to grow in the United States. The results provided by the U.S Census Bureau show that the homeownership rate rose to 65.3% for the first quarter of 2020. This is a number that has been rising since 2016 and is the highest rate obtained in eight years.

The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) explained that a strong owner household formation with around 2.7 million homeowners added in the first quarter has made the increase of the homeownership rate, especially under the decreasing mortgage interest rates and strong new home sales and existing home sales in the first two months before coronavirus hit the economy.

The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) also highlighted that the homeownership rates among all age groups increased in the first quarter of 2020.

  • Households under 35, who are mostly first-time homebuyers, have registered as the largest gains, with the homeownership rate increased by 1.9% from a year ago.
  • Households with ages between 35-44 have increased by 1.2%.
  • Households with ages between 55-64 have increased by 0.9%.
  • Households with ages between 45-54 have increased by 0.8%.
  • Households with ages over 65 have increased by 0.2%.

Homeownership has always been a great financial investment and an important part of the American Dream. The current situation makes many people feel more thankful for the home they get to share with their families. Coronavirus may be slowing our lives down, but it is showing us the emotional value of homeownership too.

Full article on keepingcurrentmatters.com


Americans are down on stocks after coronavirus sell-off, Gallup survey says real estate is the best investment.

From gallup.com and cnbc.com

Americans feel cynical about stock market investing due to the economic shock caused by coronavirus. 21% of Americans who think stocks or mutual funds are the best long-term investment is down by six points from 2019 and the lowest percentage recorded by Gallup since 2012. Real estate ranked first, followed by gold and savings accounts.

Since 2013, 35% of Americans say real estate is the most recommended long-term investment. And since 2016, over one-third of Americans have named real estate as the top investment.

Stocks and mutual funds remain the second most preferred long-term investment, despite the dip. Savings accounts or CDs (17%) and gold (16%) followed. Bonds lagged at roughly 8%.

Stockowners have also lost interest in stocks or mutual funds — with the percentage naming stocks dropping from 37% in 2019 to 30% now.

The results came from Gallup’s annual Economy and Finance survey that was conducted from April 1–14 among 1,017 U.S. adults.

High-income Americans believe stocks and mutual funds as the best long-term investment. However, the drop occurred among both high-income and low-income Americans, with a decline of nine points each from last year’s survey, while the percentage of middle-income respondents who chose stocks or mutual funds did not change.

The survey shows that the ownership of stocks is stable at 55% of Americans. But confidence among stock owners fell, with only 30% picking stocks and mutual funds as the best investment — down from 37% in 2019. And even after a decade of economic expansion and record stock market gains, the percentage of Americans that own stocks have not reached its 63% peak from before the Great Recession. A low was reached by 52% in 2013.

65% of high-income households said investing $1,000 in the stock market is a good idea, but 47% of middle-income households and 39% of low-income households agreed. Over half of stock owners believe the investment to be valuable, while the sentiment among non-investors hovered closer to a third.

Stocks appeal’ may have faded after the longest-running bull market in the U.S. history ended, they still ranked as the second most valued investment. However, the economic fallout from coronavirus could scramble Americans’ preferences as the stock market is at risk and the real estate market’s future is uncertain.

Full Article on gallup.com and cnbc.com


Beyond leads: What are other metrics of real estate marketing success?

When your business feels like a moving target, take aim at measurable data points. Looking at lead generation is the most basic indicator that outreach is being received by the right stakeholders. In the latest Leading in Luxury article on Inman.com Frank and Dawn Bodenchak, Real Estate Professionals with Sotheby’s International Realty in Bridgehampton, New York, recognize that today’s marketing can go so much further.

Start with simple math

It’s still important to begin with the essentials. “I track the number of phone and email inquiries on a listing, the number of showing requests per week, and the percentage conversion of showings into interested parties,” says Frank Bodenchak of his monitoring process. In luxury real estate, metrics like these have always been the easiest way to see, at a glance, whether your marketing efforts are generating the results you want.

But there are two more simple stats that ought to be monitored: the number of days a home has been on the market, and the number of showings per home. “If you aren’t getting enough showings, or if showings aren’t generating offers, then marketing, product offering, and price need to be revisited to improve these metrics,” notes Dawn Bodenchak. The longer a property sits, the likelier potential buyers will expect that either the seller will lower the price or that there is something amiss with the home.

No one likes to wait

23636 Ten Barr Trl, Bend, Listed by Julie Reber

If you have a customer relationship management (CRM) system, chances are it’s measuring how often you correspond with your leads and clients, and reminding you periodically to follow up with them. If you’re not using a CRM system, then it’s critical to proactively track your email, phone, and in-person exchanges.

The Bodenchaks make a habit of always tracking response time — how much time has elapsed since a lead’s initial inquiry. The average response time, according to one study by Inside Real Estate, is about 15 hours and 30 minutes, though research has also shown that a staggering 48% of inquiries fall through the cracks.

You also need to be cognizant of the time that elapses between follow-ups, which, surprisingly, is reported to be the most overlooked aspect of real estate lead generation. By closing these gaps, agents will easily start to see a growing number of qualified leads.

Make the most of online

“We still use magazine ads for brand awareness and reminding buyers and brokers about a listing, but the first line of contact is internet-based,” says Frank Bodenchak. “Over the past decade, we’ve moved away from relying on print for information dissemination to relying on email blasts, real estate search engines, and social media.”

Google Analytics is a fundamental way to watch your web traffic. You can review how many people visit your site and track their browsing behavior. For instance, keeping an eye on your bounce rate will inform how quickly visitors leave your site after they arrive. You’ll also be able to assess which of your pages are the most popular. Adding these metrics to your marketing rubric gives you the bigger picture of how your efforts are succeeding.

Frank and Dawn Bodenchak have seen firsthand the benefits that social media brings to their marketing. Facebook and Instagram provide feedback to help agents monitor their social channels, stay notified on engagement and responses, and maintain real-time marketing awareness. “By switching to a business account on Instagram, we are now receiving all kinds of key insights from posts,” says Frank Bodenchak. “Beyond likes and comments, Instagram tells us the gender, age, and location of our audience. With even a small budget for online marketing, we can make an impact.”

The basics still apply

23636 Ten Barr Trl, Bend, Listed by Julie Reber

“Know the landscape, know the pricing, and know the product — and most importantly, know how the product can be adapted to work for a buyer,” says Dawn Bodenchak. “The metrics we use to evaluate our marketing success may not have changed, but the means to achieve them have.” Now there are more tools in agents’ inventory to make sure that their strategies are successful — and, by extension, that their leads, prospects, and clients enjoy the best service possible